After more than a decade of steady declines, global solar module prices are now moving in the opposite direction. Market analysis by Wood Mackenzie is forecasting a rise of around 9% in Q4 2025, driven primarily by increased raw-material costs and tightening supply among manufacturers. For organisations across the UK public sector — from local authorities and NHS estates teams to schools, colleges and universities — this shift introduces new challenges at a time when pressure to deliver on decarbonisation plans has never been greater.
So what exactly is driving these changes, and how can public-sector bodies safeguard their projects?
Polysilicon is a key material in most solar modules, and its price has risen dramatically in recent months — in some cases over 30% in just a few weeks. Reduced output from major producers and periods of supply disruption have compounded this upward trend.
Several global module manufacturers have temporarily reduced or consolidated production capacity. While this is part of a longer-term shift toward more efficient lines, in the short term it reduces availability and pushes prices upward.
Components such as PV glass are also experiencing tighter supply. When multiple parts of the production chain come under pressure simultaneously, the cost impact becomes more pronounced.
Solar modules are primarily traded globally in USD or EUR. Any fluctuations in the value of the pound can add a secondary layer of cost pressure for UK projects.
The industry has enjoyed more than a decade of rapid cost declines. The recent increases are partly a “market correction” following a period where prices fell faster than manufacturing and material costs could sustainably support.
Many public-sector organisations are working with business cases built months ago. If procurement is pushed into late 2025 or early 2026, projects may exceed their budgets unless updated early.
Higher material costs can extend ROI timelines, making sign-off more challenging for finance teams or governing boards.
Tenders based on outdated assumptions may receive bids that sit above the allocated capital envelope, requiring scope changes or retendering.
Estate decarbonisation strategies often rely heavily on solar PV. Any slowdown caused by cost uncertainty can impact progress on broader net-zero goals.
Even though module prices are rising, solar remains one of the most cost-effective and proven decarbonisation technologies available. With a proactive approach, public-sector organisations can continue to deploy high-impact projects while staying in control of budgets.
Refreshing business cases, budget envelopes and lifecycle assessments now helps avoid surprises later. Market intelligence should be incorporated into planning cycles and investment appraisals.
Engaging suppliers and designers early (even before formal tendering) allows organisations to explore options, test scenarios and ensure specifications align with what the market can realistically deliver within budget.
Phased rollouts or capacity-scaled installations can keep projects viable while maintaining progress on net-zero plans.
While module prices may be rising, there are still meaningful opportunities to reduce embodied carbon and enhance value elsewhere in the project — for example by choosing glulam timber carports.
Timber structures offer:
Lower embodied carbon
Strong architectural integration
Warm natural aesthetics suitable for campuses, hospitals and civic spaces
This becomes especially relevant when module cost is less controllable — allowing sustainability gains to be achieved through smarter structural design.
With volatility likely to continue into 2026, organisations should factor potential price changes into both timelines and budget margins.
Solspan UK works with local authorities, NHS Trusts, universities, colleges and commercial estate teams to deliver solar carport solutions that stay cost-effective, even as prices fluctuate.
We help organisations by:
Providing current market pricing insights to strengthen planning and decision-making
Offering a range of carport structures that can be matched to different estate types, space constraints and budget levels
Delivering glulam timber options for clients seeking lower-carbon structures without compromising visual quality
Supporting early feasibility and design discussions so teams can stress-test assumptions before committing to procurement
Even in a changing market, solar carports remain a powerful way for the public sector to generate clean energy, reduce operational costs and demonstrate leadership in sustainable infrastructure.
With early engagement, updated assumptions and the right structural approach, public-sector organisations can continue delivering high-impact solar projects that support both their financial goals and their net-zero commitments.
Solspan can help you refresh your business case or update pricing if needed. You may find a more cost-effective design can help offset the solar module price increases.